If you don't like NFL then I would recommend turning away now. If you do, then hello and welcome to my preview of the AFC and NFC Championship games. On paper these look like two fascinating match-ups: in the AFC you have two of the highest scoring offenses in the league this season whereas the NFC brings together two of the best defences and running games.
AFC Championship Game
#2 New England Patriots (13-4, 4-4 road) @ #1 Denver Broncos (14-3, 8-1 home)
This one has all the elements of a classic. Brady v Manning has some history too, and I think a critical part of this game will be which Manning turns up. If it is Regular Season Manning then the Patriots could be in trouble.
The Broncos scored 10pts a game more than anybody else in the Regular Season and the Patriots defense was only 15th in YPG against the pass. If Manning is on then the Patroits' secondary could be running after shadows most of the game.
Critical for the Patriots will be disrupting Manning's rhythm and not allowing him to improvise on the fly as he is so good at doing. The 3 lowest points scoring efforts from the Broncos this season were all against the Chargers, who mixed it up very well on defense and kept Manning guessing.
For all their dominance in terms of points this season the Broncos had a 0 turnover differential, compared to +12 for the Patriots. If the Patriots can keep the Broncos off balance then they might be able to turn the ball over a few times and have a chance in this one.
Both running games should play a big part, although I suspect Monte Ball will do the heavy yards for the Broncos and don't be surprised to see Shane Vereen carry the ball for the Patriots. LeGarrette Blount torched the Colts last week but I think Belichick will keep the Bronco's defense guessing and use Vereen more.
My gut feeling in this one is that somehow the Patriots will get to Manning and shut him down (well, relative to his performances this season) as the game wears on. Brady and Belichick know how to win in the Playoffs better than anyone and I can see this going the same way.
Prediction: Broncos score first and lead at half time. Patriots come back and take it by a FG (34-31)
NFC Championship Game
#4 San Francisco 49ers (14-4, 8-2 road) @ #1 Seattle Seahawks (14-3, 8-1 home)
This could get feisty. The teams don't like each other. The coaches have history from their days coaching Stanford and USC in college. Both teams have a player or two who likes to run his mouth. So yeah, this could get feisty.
The two divisional games this season may be a good form guide; SF kicked a FG with 00:26 to play to win 19-17 at home in Week 14 whilst Week 2 was a 29-3 blowout in Seattle that made everyone stand up and pay attention to these Seahawks as legitimate Superbowl contenders.
Seattle have been dominant this season on defense, leading the league in Total YPG and Passing YPG and finishing 7th in Rushing YPG. They lead the league in takeaways and coughed up a mere 14.4 PPG. These Seahawks are tough, fast and intelligent on the defensive side of the ball.
Offensively Seattle are effective. They have "The Beast" Marshawn Lynch to do the bulk of the work and Russell Wilson doesn't give the football away. They haven't got a real #1 WR to go to but they distribute the ball effectively and sensibly. When your defense gives you only 15 points to beat each week you can keep it simple and do the job. They might need to score a few more against the 49ers but they do have the tools to do it, especially if they get up early.
Frank Gore led the 3rd ranked 49ers rushing offense, ably supported by Colin Kaepernick who is a nightmare to scheme against. Teams have started to work out that if you are going to let him break containment then make him go left, but it isn't always that easy.
In the air the 30th ranked pass attack of the 49ers possesses the man described as "the greatest catcher of all time" by his coach. While there is no doubt that Michael Crabtree has good hands, I think most people will acknowledge he is not even the greatest catcher to wear the red and gold! Still, he makes plays, stretches the field and occupies defenders in a way that allows San Francisco the space to get their ground game going. When you throw Vernon Davis into the mix at TE it is not hard to see that the 49ers have enough options to win this game, but it won't be easy against that Seahawk defense.
Defensively the 49ers aren't too far behind the Seahawks, and their impressive 23-10 last week @ #2 Carolina shows they can do it on the road too. On the road this season the 49ers haven't really been stretched (playing the likes of the St. Louis, Jacksonville, Washington and Tampa). Their two road losses were to NO in Week 11 and the thumping they took in Seattle in Week 2.
The 49ers finished 4th in the league against the run this season and will need to be every bit as good as that to keep the Seahawks in check.
There is one other factor in this game, Seattle's fabled "12th Man". The crowd generates enough noise to trigger seismic activity in the region and communication at the line of scrimmage will be key for the 49ers if they are to avoid being overwhelmed. Kaepernick likes to improvise but his ability to do that will be severely hampered by the noise and Seattle will be coming for him
Prediction: Seahawks get a fast start and lead by 10 at half time. 49ers make some adjustments and come back at them but the Seahawks are too dominant defensively and take it by 10 (24-14)
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