Day 22 - Running Late

I appreciate I'm a day late on this one. 

It was a busy Sunday. I spent most of the day running around trying to find extra things to put in Katie's first "Parcel from America". I hope she likes it. I suddenly feel very nervous about it. I know I have no reason to be but I am. It's been really difficult the last few days for some reason. I miss being there on a daily basis, I miss being able to be a positive influence from close by - instead having to watch and try to be a positive influence from this far away. The situation is far from ideal and I'll confess that this weekend has been a difficult one.

But at the end of the day I can't control that. As much as there are things I wish I could do I really can't do much. And if you remember, one of this year's goals was to worry less about things I can't control. You have to trust in the people who are in control of the situation to handle it, and then just hope that it all works out properly in the end. I have faith that it will, what else can you do?

So in the meantime it was a day spent trying to find things which hopefully she will love. Or at least remind her that I'm thinking of her every day. And wishing I could give her these things in person.

The rest of the evening was taking partaking in a US institution. It was Superbowl day. Now I just assumed that pretty much everyone in America sits down an d swatches this event (which is after all perennially the most watched broadcast in the world). However in this part of the US it seems less to be the case. For a start, the relatively local New Orleans Saints missed out this year. And Louisiana seems to be a very patriotic state. If the local team don't make it, they tend not to be that interested!

Nevertheless I had a really enjoyable evening out with one of my colleagues. He has a beautiful house and a great set-up. Outdoor seating area, big screen projector, BBQ. Soon to be supplemented by a fully functioning double-fancy outdoor grill station which I will definitely be keen to sample once it is fully complete - assuming I'm invited again!

Anyway, that's enough for my first weekend in Red Stick. I'm about to roll straight out of this one into the next one. So you get 2 for the price of 1 today. Which is always a bargain in my eyes.

Till tomorrow (or in this case, give me 10 mins),

Tom

Day 21 - Geaux Tigers

First proper Saturday in Baton Rouge. Nice day outside. Slight lie-in after a week of very early starts necessitated by going to the gym every day before work.

Home of Mike VII

I decided to go down and explore the Louisiana State University (LSU) campus since it (a) is pretty close and (b) has its own live tiger. Yup that's right, Mike the 7th lives in his own permanent habitat right between Tiger Stadium (Football - the US version) and the PMAC (Basketball). 

In think he's the only live tiger currently used as a mascot in US college sports. I know that some of you will be very against animals in captivity for the purposes of entertainment. However I'm assured from my research that he's well cared for and would be in a much worse off situation if they hadn't taken him from where he was before.

Anyway, those who know me will know that I love sports, any sports. I especially love watching sport live and I'm also a big fan of US sports. The college football season ended a few weeks ago (in glory for LSU as they won their 4th National title) but the basketball team is nationally relevant (and had a game today) so I figured there might be a good atmosphere down there just before tip-off.

What I hadn't grasped is the sheer scale of everything. Remember this is a college, not a professional team. Yet Tiger Stadium holds in excess of 100,000 people and is comfortably the biggest stadium I have ever seen. 

College sports are taken so seriously here in the US, especially in this part of the country. The LSU head coach earns $6m per year, and the QB who led them to the National title 20 days ago is on track to be the #1 pick in the NFL draft. If you consider last year's #1 pick got a $23.6m signing on bonus, you start to see why the whole thing is taken so seriously.

It is something we simply don't have in the UK at this level. We have passionate supporters of course, and in the professional leagues (especially football - UK version) the number of fans who go through the turnstiles in a season is certainly not small. But not college. I went to watch our my university cricket first XI play once and I think there were more people on the pitch than watching. 

Maybe I was being naive, but I didn't expect this. Don't forget, most of these players are kids - 18 to 22 generally - and the pressure to perform is astonishing. 

They are expected to carry themselves and behave like professionals from almost day one in the system. I spent 8 years in university and can confidently say I was still short of the necessary tools to deal with what they do when I left.

What it all adds up to, is that the Tigers are more than just the local university team, they are ambassadors for the city. Every one of the 21 sports that are officially supported by the university represent the city every time they play.  

Scratch a bit deeper and you start to understand why this is the case here. Baton Rouge has no professional teams in any of the big 5 leagues (football, basketball, hockey, baseball or soccer). New Orleans is a few hours down the road and caters for football and basketball, but for baseball or soccer you are looking at Houston, and for hockey the nearest is Dallas.

So everything revolves around LSU. 

Pretty much every single person who was hanging round Mike's enclosure before the game today was sporting purple and/or gold (the LSU colours). Kids who clearly are too young to be alumni were proudly decked out and hollering as loud as anyone. The pride the people have in the team, the university and the city is something which I think we struggle with sometimes as Brits. It filters down from the national patriotism which is so prevalent in the US, and at the city/town level it is fervent. Everybody I've met here is fiercely protective of the city and keen to make sure I see the best of it. 

I can't imagine what it will be like on a college football game day. The sense of pride, togetherness and belonging is a thing I certainly strive for in life and to see it here - and seemingly so organically too - was heartwarming, if a bit surprising. I'm always searching to feel part of things, as I truly believe that most things in life are better done together. And it is something I'm especially keen to push this year. I don't want this to be a year of solitude spent bouncing between work and the apartment. This city doesn't work like that, and I don't intend to waste opportunity.

As a result, and much to the disappointment of most of my CPChem friends/colleagues (none of whom follow LSU, and many of whom actively dislike the LSU fanbase for being a bit too rabid), it looks like I may be adopting the Tigers for the year, and who knows beyond that.

So, as they say down here on the banks of the Mississippi - Geaux (Go) Tigers!!

Till tomorrow, Tom

PS - Do not mess with this guy

Premier League Preview

If you don't like football (soccer to my American readers) then turn away now, you have been warned!

It is that time of the season again, when everyone is full of optimism and convinced that this season is going to be “the” season. The squads are assembled, barring the usual last minute panic for scraps that is Transfer Deadline Day, and all the pre-season work is over.

Of course within weeks there will be panic, recriminations and general frustrations again but for one glorious day everyone can dream. At least until you take a first half hammering and realise it is going to be a long hard slog for the remaining 37 and a half games.

So hot on the heels of my pretty average World Cup predictions (though I did get the Winners, Runners-Up and one of the Losing Semi-Finalists right) I now present Tom’s All-Conquering 2014/15 Premier League Predictions. Without any further ado then;

CHAMPIONS – Chelsea

For me, this is a two-horse race between Chelsea and Manchester City. Most observers last season would have said that if Chelsea had a 20-goal striker then they could really have run City closer. Defensively Chelsea have relieved themselves of the burden that was David Luiz and they now longer even stronger in midfield with the addition of Fabregas. Can Costa fire them to the title? Well he didn’t look fit in the World Cup but his record last season with Atletico was superb and it has been proven to be notoriously difficult to retain the Premier League crown unless you are Manchester United.

RUNNERS UP – Manchester City

I think City may be a couple of players short this year. The additions of Mangala and Sagna to shore up the defence were necessary but I don’t think they have addressed the “what happens if Yaya gets injured?” conundrum. Aguero needs to stay fit and they will need some production from Jovetic and Silva to take the burden off Toure in the midfield. They certainly can win the title but they seem much more reliant on one player than Chelsea and that is always risky.

THIRD – Arsenal

Keeping Aaron Ramsey fit will be key for Wenger’s side. When he was missing last year they really struggled and a lot rests on his shoulders. Arsenal are blessed with multiple options across the midfield but Ozil needs to sustain his production for a full season and it is important that Sanchez settles quickly. Keeping Podolski fit will also be important and they need to stop giving silly goals away too. They would need something special to challenge for the title but they are the best of the rest in my eyes.

FOURTH – Liverpool

Losing 30+ goals from a single player (no matter how divisive) is going to be difficult, especially as it now places an even greater burden on a back 5 that was more of a hindrance than a help for most of the season. Rodgers has recruited in what appear to be the right positions but the question will be how he deploys his resources to get the best of them. If Sturridge stays fit then they have a chance but they have to play twice a week this year and will also have to adapt their style now that Suarez has gone. It might seem like a step back finishing fourth but if they can get that defence working better and cope with a 60+ game season that it is actually forward progress in the long run.

FIGHTING FOR EUROPEAN SPOTS – Everton, Manchester United, Tottenham

Everton have kept hold of most of the pieces from last year’s jigsaw and Martinez has added to the pot. I still feel we are short of another goal-scoring option and maybe some cover at the back but Everton played some great stuff last year and another full pre-season under Martinez should have honed the style. We should challenge for the Top 4 again this season but it’ll be a tough nut to crack. Martinez influenced a lot of games with his tactics last season, will he keep up that good run this year?

I watched Manchester United the other night in a friendly and they looked shockingly off the pace. Everything was being done at walking pace and (although it was a friendly) there was no zip about them. They boast a wealth of attacking options but are woefully short at centre half. The good teams could pick them apart with reckless abandon and the new 3-4-3 formation is a long way from established.

Spurs are a strange one. A new manager and plenty of money spent but they seem to have regressed for me on paper. They lack real creativity in the centre of the park and are heavily reliant on a centre-forward who often doesn’t bother to show up. Pocchetino will get them playing with more tempo but it might take more than that for Spurs to sneak into Europe.

BATTLING RELEGATION – Leicester, Burnley, QPR, West Brom, West Ham, Swansea

Leicester had a great season last year and were comfortably the best team in the division for long periods of time. They have brought in a few players with Premier League experience and in David Nugent have a man who still knows where the goal is. But they have a tricky start though and could be behind the eight-ball early on. I think they might finish lowest of the promoted sides and that could see them drop back down.

Burnley will need Ings and Vokes to get regularly on the score sheet or their stay will be a short one.  Sean Dyche has done a great job at Turf Moor and their home form is critical. The atmosphere at the home games could be key and on the flip side they will need to make sure they are defensively sound away from home as goal difference matters. I can see them scoring enough goals to stay up though, unless one of their strikers gets poached mid-season.

QPR dragged themselves up via the playoffs after tailing away towards the end of the season. They have experience in the dugout with ‘Arry but have they learnt the lessons of last time? They changed too much and got away from the team that got them up and it cost them. Ferdinand still has enough about him to marshal a Premier League defence and they should have enough firepower to stay up. Just.

West Brom survived last season mainly because there were three even worse teams come the end. Alan Irvine has a job on his hands and I don’t know if he has the personnel to keep them up. A lot relies on Chris Brunt and they need to score more goals than they did last season. I think it’ll go down to the wire and I don’t think they’ll stay up.

I’ll get it out straight away. I don’t like Allardyce. I hate the way his teams play football and I’ve never known someone bleat more about referees than him. He is effective though and usually manages to keep his teams up. This season I’m worried for West Ham though; Carroll and the new striker Valencia aren’t fit, Nolan is getting on in years and I think defensively they are as weak a unit as there is in the Premier League. Especially if Adrian plays in goal. The fans play a big part here too, if they get a bad start with their “lump it” approach then they will be on Big Sam’s back and that usually doesn’t end well.

Swansea are a strange one. They play great stuff when they are on but when they aren’t they really struggle. They will need to keep Bony and his goals could be the difference. They will always have plenty of the ball but I worry for them defensively as they’ve lost a few starters and that is never easy. I think they’ll just be OK but don’t think they’ll challenge further up the table.

GOING DOWN: Leicester, West Brom and West Ham

THE REST– Aston Villa, Newcastle, Sunderland, Stoke, Southampton, Hull City, Crystal Palace

Aston Villa – A bit of off-season turmoil but this team has come through plenty in the last two seasons and have two years’ experience to draw on. I think they’ll be ok if they can get Benteke back and retain Weimann through the transfer window.

Newcastle – The only thing certain about Newcastle is that Pardew is in his last chance saloon. They should have jettisoned him last season but stuck by him despite a terrible run of performances from when Cabaye left. Again goals may be a problem but I don’t think they are as bad as some of the other teams and they will probably be ok.

Sunderland – After the miracle of escape last season, this one is all about consolidating for Poyet. Hopefully he’ll keep Rodwell fit as the boy is a great player. If they can bring Borini in and Wickham can continue his development then they’ll be mid table and battling to finish above their local rivals.

Stoke City – A great finish to the season from Stoke and they will be looking to push on. Hughes has them playing football and it is a breath of fresh air from the Pulis days. Bojan is an intriguing signing as the ex-Barcelona player has all the tools. They have a great goalkeeper and, shall we say “rugged”, centre-halves so they won’t be bullied by anyone.

Southampton – They have been gutted since last season and will undoubtedly regress. But they still have a lot of good, young players and plenty of quality remains. Long would be a great signing and defensively I still think they will be solid, especially with the addition of Forster between the sticks.

Hull City – Losing Long would be a blow but Hull had a great season last season and I can see Bruce keeping them in the mid-table region. Jelavic will be key if he can rediscover his shooting boots and they are usually pretty solid at the back. Huddlestone and Livermore need to dominate in midfield and then they should be fine.

Crystal Palace – Tony Pulis did wonderfully last year and this time he starts from a level playing field. Frazier Campbell’s addition should help to increase the goals tally and they have plenty of young talent which should see them through. They are short of pace at the back but their attitude and work-rate is spot on and they won’t get rolled over very often.

So there it is. The title may be making its way out of Manchester for the first time in 5 years and it seems like a bad season to have the word “West” in your team name. It should be a cracker though and there will be plenty of entertain and drama throughout the season. Good luck whoever you support and let’s hope we only have good things to talk about this campaign.

Till next time,

DT 

The start of the year

It's the Masters this weekend. For me this is always the "start" of the year. For those not of a golfing persuasion, the Masters is the first of male golf's four "major" championships. It is always played at the same course and is almost always a couple of weeks after the clocks go forward here in the UK.

For those reasons it is a very recognisable point in the year, one that seems to herald (for me anyway) the proper beginning of the new year. I've never really seen 1st January as a suitable point at which to draw a line under the year and start afresh. It is right in the middle of the darkest part of the year and I feel it doesn't have any real sense of rebirth or new beginning. Each day feels like the one before to me.

I much prefer this time of year as a "restart point". For a start the shift from GMT to BST affords us an extra hour of evening daylight. A lot of the hobbies I enjoy and things I like to do are outdoors so I suffer particularly during the winter when it is dark. Usually I really struggle dreadfully through the long nights and I start to come alive around this time of year. The Masters weekend always seems to be the point which triggers that, it is a definable line between winter and spring, dark and light, in my mind.

I always seem to be busy around now and this year I'm particularly grateful for that fact. Last year was especially tough as it should have been my 1st wedding anniversary but unfortunately that wasn't to be. I still find that so difficult sometimes but sadly that is what it is and hopefully this year will be a bit less tough.

This year I have an operation coming up on the 16th and I have to confess that I am really nervous. It is a very simple procedure by all accounts but whenever my thoughts stray to it I can't say it is pleasant. I obviously can't pretend it isn't going to happen - and the ramifications could be life-altering depending on the results - so having things to distract me and keep my mind and body otherwise engaged is crucial. As a result being busy and having lots to suddenly distract me is definitely very important this year.

For that reason I am even more excited than usual to have the Masters weekend here. Normally it is a welcome reminder that my year is just getting going and it gives me a chance to get stuck into whatever I have organised to keep me entertained. This year it is even more important, and I am delighted it has decided to make an appearance.

To the "beginning" of the year, may it be a better one than the last and a mere warm-up for the one after.

Today's #randomfactoftheday - Between 1956 and 2007, no winner of the Masters was over par for the four rounds.

Today's #websiteoftheday - More MOOCs for you to check out (https://www.futurelearn.com/courses)

Today's #badjokeoftheday - Q: How many golfers does it take to change a lightbulb? A: Fore!

On this day: 1988, Sandy Lyle becomes the first British winner of the Masters.

Till next time,
DT

World Cup thoughts

If you don't like football and/or the World Cup, then look away now. Today's blog is World Cup themed.

It is 98 days till the start of the 2016 and, let's face it, England shouldn't really be in with a chance. But you never know once you get there. So here is my list of the 23 who I would take to Brazil, assuming everyone who is currently fit remains fit of course. I've also not thrown in any major curveballs, everyone on this list has at least been capped by England and/or is definitely in Roy's thinking.

Goalkeepers (3)
Joe Hart (Man City)
Fraser Forster (Celtic)
John Ruddy (Norwich)

Pretty much a no-brainer here. Hart is guaranteed and Forster deserves to at least go for the experience as he'll be around for a bit - he is only 25. Ruddy goes as the #2 and I don't think anyone would be worried if he was called upon in South America.

Defenders (7)
Phil Jagielka (Everton)
Gary Cahill (Chelsea)
Leighton Baines (Everton)
Glen Johnson (Liverpool)
Phil Jones (Man Utd)
Ashley Cole (Chelsea)
Chris Smalling (Man Utd)

I'm still not 100% convinced about Gary Cahill, particularly his defensive positioning, but him and Jagielka seem to be as settled a pairing as we have. Baines and Johnson complete the starting back four. I thought long and hard about whether to bring Kyle Walker but I really want to take 9 midfielders and so I only have 7 defensive slots. I don't want to waste 4 of the 7 on full backs. I toyed with leaving out Ashley Cole and using Gareth Barry or Glen Johnson as the back-up left back (allowing me to take Walker) but eventually went with Cole as he is still exceptional defensively and has the experience. I think Phil Jones has a future at centre half and he can also play right back and even in midfield so he is a useful option to have.

The final place was a real toss-up and I still haven't really 100% settled on Smalling. The problem is that Ferdinand and Terry are gone for their various reasons and the cupboard is a bit bare beyond that. Curtis Davis has been having a good season but is untested and Joleon Lescott's confidence is shot. Michael Dawson might be an option but his lack of pace concerns me. So Smalling gets the nod but would only play in dire circumstances. Maybe if Kyle Walker has a good second half to the season he might sneak in but we already have one right back who isn't great defensively so I don't really want to risk another.

Midfielders (9)
Steven Gerrard (Liverpool)
Jack Wilshere (Arsenal)
Gareth Barry (Everton)
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (Arsenal)
Andros Townsend (Tottenham)
Adam Lallana (Southampton)
Raheem Sterling (Liverpool)
Michael Carrick (Man Utd)
Ross Barkley (Everton)

I know I am an Everton fan but Barry has been superb this season and he is the perfect fit for that holding role right in front of the back four. Wilshere is a really nice footballer (alebit injury prone) and I think the slower tempo called for in the heat of the jungle may suit him. Gerrard is a no-brainer and I'd like to see him in front of Barry alongside Wilshere if they are all fit. Carrick hasn't been great this season but in the holding role I think he'd do a great job if needed and he sneaks in ahead of Cleverley who seems to have gone backwards (kind of like his passing).

Lallana looks great everytime I see him and I think he would do a really good job wherever you play him across the midfield. The Ox isn't fully match fit yet but he can play wide or central and I think he has supplanted Milner who would possibly be pegged to do a similar role as that. Kevin Nolan was another I considered in here but he wouldn't be a focal point for England the way he is for West Ham so I don't think he is as effective.

That leaves wider options. Sterling looks good but needs to learn to stay on his feet when not touched. Townsend is another one who isn't fully fit but has the ability to do plenty when running at people. That leaves one more place and I considered Lennon, Milner, Henderson and Adam Johnson amongst others. In the end I plumped for Barkley as I've seen him play lots this season and the boy is class. Two footed, quick and smart. My only concern is maybe a lack of a real natural left footer but Sterling can play out there and Lallana can do a job too if need be.

Strikers (4)
Wayne Rooney (Man Utd)
Danny Wellbeck (Man Utd)
Daniel Sturridge (Liverpool)
Rickie Lambert (Southampton)

Sturridge is almost the first name on the team sheet for me at the moment. And he MUST play down the middle. He is deadly if you keep him no wider than the outside of the penalty area and must be played there. Rooney has to go, simple as. Wellbeck looks much better for England than Man Utd and he always has an impact coming off the bench. So he is in.

So that leaves me with one more option. Lambert, Carroll and Defoe are the obvious choices and it really was a three-way flip of a coin. I think Lambert and Carroll both offer more in the 1 up-front shape than Defoe and, of the two, I think Lambert just has the edge.

So there you have it. England's 23 for the World Cup according to Tom. The squad is of course only part of the equation and the toughest job for Roy has to be accommodating Rooney into a system (1 up top) which clearly doesn't suit him. Maybe he should lie deeper and play alongside Wilshere with Gerrard a touch deeper. That way he doesn't force Sturridge out wide but we get him on the ball a lot.

Good luck Roy is all I can say!!

Today's #randomfactoftheday - The mascot for the upcoming tournament is an armadillo named Fuleco

Today's #badjokeoftheday - I can't stand those people who don't like football but still go to games, cause trouble and generally ruin it for anyone else. Bloody referees.

Today's #websiteoftheday - Where else, but the official World Cup sticker album? - released 27th March (http://www.footballstickipedia.com/panini-2014-fifa-world-cup-brazil-sticker-album.html)

On this day; (not World Cup related) - 1475, birth of Michelangelo

Till tomorrow,
DT

Superbowl XLVIII Prediction

So here we go. The biggest worldwide TV audience of the year. Want to advertise during it? A 30 second TV spot will set you back approximately $4 million. Yes, its the Superbowl. But who will lift the coveted Lombardi trophy and take the title of World Champions (yes I know it is only played in one country but hey ho).

In the Orange Corner we have the #1 AFC Team - the Denver Broncos. Possessors of statistically the most prolific offense that has ever been seen. Under center they have a guaranteed Hall of Fame QB while another runs the football side of operations. It is 15 years since they last lifted the trophy and they are looking to improve upon their record of 2-4 in the big game.

Key Questions
Are they ready to win again? 
They have suffered some poor PO losses in recent years, is the mentality right?

Can Peyton Manning get that second ring? 
A relatively poor return for a man of his abilities. Will the pressure overwhelm?

Will that offense fire as it has done all season? 
The weather could be sub-zero, the Seattle defense is stingy and the Broncos may struggle to get the Seahawk offense off the field if they go behind

In the Blue(ish) Corner is the #1 seeded NFC Team - the Seattle Seahawks. A frighteningly quick and agile defense coupled with a rumbling ground game and a smart, young QB have got them to the big game for only the second time in their history. They froze somewhat 8 years ago against the Steelers so they will be looking to right that wrong.

Key Questions
Can that defense get to Manning? 
If they can rattle him they might slow them down enough. Seattle don't want to get into a shootout

How will the lack of the "12th Man" play a part?
Seattle are 3 timezones and many kilometres away from CenturyLink Field. They won't have the fabled home fans (who are loud enough to create earthquakes) to disrupt the Broncos rhythm. Will being away from their environment affect them greatly?

What is the offensive game plan? 
The Seahawks will want to keep the Broncos off the field. They will have to lean heavily on the running game but when the get to 3rd and 4,5,6 do they look to pass or play it safe.

It should be a cracker. The weather could play a huge factor and whichever team manages the conditions could well prevail. Getting ahead early may be the key as not turning over the ball will be critical. Both teams would like to play from in front and control the clock.

Almost to close to call this one but I am going to go for Denver by a FG. I just think Manning won't let another great season go to waste without a ring and I think they'll just score enough to edge it. Don't be surprised if this one stays close all the way and it comes down to one mistake near the end.

NFL Conference Championship Games

If you don't like NFL then I would recommend turning away now. If you do, then hello and welcome to my preview of the AFC and NFC Championship games. On paper these look like two fascinating match-ups: in the AFC you have two of the highest scoring offenses in the league this season whereas the NFC brings together two of the best defences and running games.

AFC Championship Game
#2 New England Patriots (13-4, 4-4 road) @ #1 Denver Broncos (14-3, 8-1 home)

This one has all the elements of a classic. Brady v Manning has some history too, and I think a critical part of this game will be which Manning turns up. If it is Regular Season Manning then the Patriots could be in trouble.

The Broncos scored 10pts a game more than anybody else in the Regular Season and the Patriots defense was only 15th in YPG against the pass. If Manning is on then the Patroits' secondary could be running after shadows most of the game.

Critical for the Patriots will be disrupting Manning's rhythm and not allowing him to improvise on the fly as he is so good at doing. The 3 lowest points scoring efforts from the Broncos this season were all against the Chargers, who mixed it up very well on defense and kept Manning guessing.

For all their dominance in terms of points this season the Broncos had a 0 turnover differential, compared to +12 for the Patriots. If the Patriots can keep the Broncos off balance then they might be able to turn the ball over a few times and have a chance in this one.

Both running games should play a big part, although I suspect Monte Ball will do the heavy yards for the Broncos and don't be surprised to see Shane Vereen carry the ball for the Patriots. LeGarrette Blount torched the Colts last week but I think Belichick will keep the Bronco's defense guessing and use Vereen more.

My gut feeling in this one is that somehow the Patriots will get to Manning and shut him down (well, relative to his performances this season) as the game wears on. Brady and Belichick know how to win in the Playoffs better than anyone and I can see this going the same way.

Prediction: Broncos score first and lead at half time. Patriots come back and take it by a FG (34-31)

NFC Championship Game
#4 San Francisco 49ers (14-4, 8-2 road) @ #1 Seattle Seahawks (14-3, 8-1 home)

This could get feisty. The teams don't like each other. The coaches have history from their days coaching Stanford and USC in college. Both teams have a player or two who likes to run his mouth. So yeah, this could get feisty.

The two divisional games this season may be a good form guide; SF kicked a FG with 00:26 to play to win 19-17 at home in Week 14 whilst Week 2 was a 29-3 blowout in Seattle that made everyone stand up and pay attention to these Seahawks as legitimate Superbowl contenders.

Seattle have been dominant this season on defense, leading the league in Total YPG and Passing YPG and finishing 7th in Rushing YPG. They lead the league in takeaways and coughed up a mere 14.4 PPG. These Seahawks are tough, fast and intelligent on the defensive side of the ball.

Offensively Seattle are effective. They have "The Beast" Marshawn Lynch to do the bulk of the work and Russell Wilson doesn't give the football away. They haven't got a real #1 WR to go to but they distribute the ball effectively and sensibly. When your defense gives you only 15 points to beat each week you can keep it simple and do the job. They might need to score a few more against the 49ers but they do have the tools to do it, especially if they get up early.

Frank Gore led the 3rd ranked 49ers rushing offense, ably supported by Colin Kaepernick who is a nightmare to scheme against. Teams have started to work out that if you are going to let him break containment then make him go left, but it isn't always that easy.

In the air the 30th ranked pass attack of the 49ers possesses the man described as "the greatest catcher of all time" by his coach. While there is no doubt that Michael Crabtree has good hands, I think most people will acknowledge he is not even the greatest catcher to wear the red and gold! Still, he makes plays, stretches the field and occupies defenders in a way that allows San Francisco the space to get their ground game going. When you throw Vernon Davis into the mix at TE it is not hard to see that the 49ers have enough options to win this game, but it won't be easy against that Seahawk defense.

Defensively the 49ers aren't too far behind the Seahawks, and their impressive 23-10 last week @ #2 Carolina shows they can do it on the road too. On the road this season the 49ers haven't really been stretched (playing the likes of the St. Louis, Jacksonville, Washington and Tampa). Their two road losses were to NO in Week 11 and the thumping they took in Seattle in Week 2.

The 49ers finished 4th in the league against the run this season and will need to be every bit as good as that to keep the Seahawks in check.

There is one other factor in this game, Seattle's fabled "12th Man". The crowd generates enough noise to trigger seismic activity in the region and communication at the line of scrimmage will be key for the 49ers if they are to avoid being overwhelmed. Kaepernick likes to improvise but his ability to do that will be severely hampered by the noise and Seattle will be coming for him

Prediction: Seahawks get a fast start and lead by 10 at half time. 49ers make some adjustments and come back at them but the Seahawks are too dominant defensively and take it by 10 (24-14)